AAK AB
About the company
AAK AB (publ.) develops and sells plant-based oils and fats in Sweden and internationally. It operates through Food Ingredients, Chocolate & Confectionery Fats, and Technical Products & Feed segments. The company offers food ingredients for chocolate and confectionery; dairy and ice cream; bakery; lecithin; special nutrition; foodservice and retail; personal care; candles; technical products; and animal nutrition. It also provides natural emulsifiers; fatty acids; plant-based candle waxes; and animal feed, proteins, and fats products. AAK AB (publ.) was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.
Price within modeled range
Other models: SEK 150.53–238.69 (median 204.91). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
The range depends on model assumptions and data; it is not a prediction or investment advice.
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Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using TTM through 30 Sep 2026 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 4.41% growth, 2.4% terminal growth, and 9.2% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 4.41%, discount rate 9.20%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 4.4% (sector default 5.3%, own revenue history -3.0%, analyst revenue consensus 7.7%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 9.6% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 7.7% a year; the growth assumption used is 4.4%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — SEK 165.21 (-9.5%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— SEK 204.91 (+12.2%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— SEK 165.21 (-9.5%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— SEK 150.53 (-17.6%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— SEK 238.69 (+30.7%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— SEK 164.69 (-9.8%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— SEK 561.79 (+207.7%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear SEK 117.61 | -55.3% |
| Base SEK 165.21 | -10.5% |
| Bull SEK 253.67 | 28.0% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At SEK 182.60 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.4%, discount 9.2%).
Compare: the market implies 6.6% a year, this model assumes 4.4%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
Sensitivity: base value per share
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
These are assumption-based scenarios, not a confidence interval. Scroll horizontally to see all discount rates.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.4% | 198.74 | 162.57 | 137.03 | 118.03 | 103.34 |
| 2.4% | 218.64 | 178.76 | 150.60 | 129.67 | 113.49 |
| 4.4% | 240.08 | 196.18 | 165.21 | 142.18 | 124.40 |
| 6.4% | 263.15 | 214.92 | 180.90 | 155.62 | 136.10 |
| 8.4% | 287.94 | 235.04 | 197.74 | 170.03 | 148.64 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
1 month price change: -1.24% · SEK 182.60 · Market data through 06 Nov 2026 ; dashed line is today’s model base value (SEK 165.21). The fair value is today’s estimate, not what the model said in the past.
Saved price history is current through 06 Nov 2026; last refreshed 06 Nov 2026 18:14 (2 hours, 30 minutes ago).
07 Oct 2026Range SEK 174.50 – 193.2006 Nov 2026
Latest news
Headlines provided by EODHD. Articles may mention multiple companies and are not investment recommendations.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 66 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 3 of 5 years | 12 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue -2.3% a year | 4 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 0.6x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 12% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Staples
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAK.ST (this company) | SEK 182.60 | -10.5% | 13.4 | 2.2 | 2.7% | 66 |
| ORK.OL Orkla ASA | NOK 102.60 | 31.9% | 14.6 | 2.3 | 9.7% | 82 |
| WN.TO George Weston Limited | CAD 109.72 | 26.2% | 39.8 | 9.1 | 1.2% | 72 |
| KHC Kraft Heinz | USD 25.32 | 25.2% | – | 0.8 | 6.3% | 36 |
| CA.PA Carrefour SA | EUR 13.64 | 23.8% | 29.2 | 0.8 | 8.7% | 72 |
| ABF.L Associated British Foods plc | GBP 19.90 | 18.8% | 15.1 | 1.2 | 3.2% | 82 |
| ADM Archer Daniels Midland | USD 70.47 | 16.8% | 13.7 | 1.4 | 3.0% | 64 |
| AXFO.ST Axfood AB | SEK 283.80 | 7.9% | 25.0 | 8.2 | 3.1% | 70 |
| DLTR Dollar Tree | USD 137.94 | 0.3% | 16.3 | 7.7 | – | 72 |
| Peer median | 16.3 | 1.9 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: SEK 5.50 per share · yield 3.01% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 5.500 |
| 2025 | 5.000 |
| 2024 | 3.700 |
| 2023 | 2.750 |
| 2022 | 2.500 |
| 2021 | 2.300 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 20:21
| Revenue | SEK 45,976,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | SEK 5,462,000,000 |
| EBIT | SEK 4,613,000,000 |
| Net income | SEK 3,548,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | SEK 2,826,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | SEK 1,434,000,000 |
| Debt | SEK 5,259,000,000 |
| Cash | SEK 1,954,000,000 |
| Working capital | SEK 12,788,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 260,747,663 |