Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

AAK AB (AAK.ST)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 13:17.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in SEK and a share price of SEK 180.10. Growth begins at 4.4% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 11.9%, net 7.7%, free cash flow 6.1% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 5.5 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (7.7%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
SEK 165.21Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range SEK 117.61 to SEK 253.67
-8%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data.

5.6%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
SEK 67.37BRevenue in year 10 (base)
SEK 5.20BNet income in year 10 (base)
SEK 2.72BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
SEK 7.33Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
SEK 247.54Implied share price in year 10 (base), today SEK 180.10
5.8%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

-SEK 1.30B SEK 43.00M SEK 1.39B SEK 2.73B SEK 4.07B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 2.2% SEK 1.98B -3.5%
Base 7.7% SEK 2.72B -0.4%
Bull 13.2% SEK 3.70B 2.7%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– SEK 45.98BSEK 5.46BSEK 3.55BSEK 2.83B 13.6110.845.0081.55180.10
Year 17.7% SEK 49.51BSEK 5.88BSEK 3.82BSEK 2.83B 14.6510.875.3890.81191.53
Year 25.9% SEK 52.44BSEK 6.23BSEK 4.05BSEK 2.78B 15.5210.675.70100.63200.34
Year 34.0% SEK 54.52BSEK 6.48BSEK 4.21BSEK 2.66B 16.1410.215.93110.84205.63
Year 43.7% SEK 56.56BSEK 6.72BSEK 4.36BSEK 2.53B 16.749.686.15121.43210.57
Year 53.5% SEK 58.55BSEK 6.96BSEK 4.52BSEK 2.37B 17.339.086.37132.39215.13
Year 63.3% SEK 60.48BSEK 7.19BSEK 4.67BSEK 2.45B 17.909.386.58143.71222.22
Year 73.1% SEK 62.34BSEK 7.41BSEK 4.81BSEK 2.52B 18.459.676.78155.38229.04
Year 82.8% SEK 64.11BSEK 7.62BSEK 4.95BSEK 2.59B 18.979.946.97167.38235.56
Year 92.6% SEK 65.79BSEK 7.82BSEK 5.08BSEK 2.66B 19.4710.207.16179.70241.74
Year 102.4% SEK 67.37BSEK 8.00BSEK 5.20BSEK 2.72B 19.9410.457.33192.31247.54

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.