Axfood AB
Axfood AB (publ) engages in the food retail and wholesale businesses primarily in Sweden. The company operates through five segments: Willys, Hemköp, City Gross, Snabbgross, and Dagab. The company sells groceries through Willys, HANDLAR'N, Hemköp, and Eurocash, City Gross, and Tempo store chains. I…
Axfood AB (publ) engages in the food retail and wholesale businesses primarily in Sweden. The company operates through five segments: Willys, Hemköp, City Gross, Snabbgross, and Dagab. The company sells groceries through Willys, HANDLAR'N, Hemköp, and Eurocash, City Gross, and Tempo store chains. It is also involved in the e-commerce business; and provision of private label products. In addition, it operates Urban Deli, a combination of restaurant, store, and market hall; Apohem, an online retail pharmacy; Matöppet, a personal grocery store and the retailer-owned mini-mart; Snabbgross, a restaurant; and Tempo, a mini-mart format of retailer-owned stores. The company serves restaurants, fast food operators, and cafés; and retailer-owned stores, mini-marts, and other convenience retailers. Axfood AB (publ) was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden. Axfood AB (publ) operates as a subsidiary of Axretail AB.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly.
Other models: SEK 171.25–353.54 (median 266.73). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using TTM through 30 Sep 2026 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 5.08% growth, 2.4% terminal growth, and 9.2% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 5.08%, discount rate 9.20%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 5.1% (sector default 5.3%, own revenue history 6.7%, analyst revenue consensus 4.2%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 4.2% a year; the growth assumption used is 5.1%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — SEK 308.07 (+9.3%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— SEK 171.25 (-39.3%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— SEK 308.07 (+9.3%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— SEK 266.73 (-5.4%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— SEK 353.54 (+25.4%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— SEK 306.63 (+8.8%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— SEK 1061.75 (+276.6%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear SEK 205.72 | -37.0% |
| Base SEK 308.07 | 8.5% |
| Bull SEK 498.31 | 43.4% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At SEK 281.90 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.4%, discount 9.2%).
Compare: the market implies 3.4% a year, this model assumes 5.1%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1% | 380.91 | 302.89 | 247.81 | 206.84 | 175.17 |
| 3.1% | 423.50 | 337.52 | 276.84 | 231.72 | 196.87 |
| 5.1% | 469.36 | 374.79 | 308.07 | 258.47 | 220.17 |
| 7.1% | 518.69 | 414.85 | 341.60 | 287.18 | 245.17 |
| 9.1% | 571.68 | 457.86 | 377.59 | 317.97 | 271.96 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 70 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +5.3% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 2.1x EBITDA | 10 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 9% | 0 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Staples
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXFO.ST (this company) | SEK 281.90 | 8.5% | 24.8 | 8.1 | 3.1% | 70 |
| ORK.OL Orkla ASA | NOK 103.30 | 31.4% | 14.7 | 2.4 | 9.7% | 82 |
| WN.TO George Weston Limited | CAD 109.72 | 26.2% | 39.8 | 9.1 | 1.2% | 72 |
| KHC Kraft Heinz | USD 25.32 | 25.2% | – | 0.8 | 6.3% | 36 |
| CA.PA Carrefour SA | EUR 13.59 | 24.1% | 29.1 | 0.8 | 8.7% | 72 |
| ABF.L Associated British Foods plc | GBP 19.83 | 19.1% | 15.0 | 1.2 | 3.2% | 82 |
| ADM Archer Daniels Midland | USD 70.47 | 16.8% | 13.7 | 1.4 | 3.0% | 64 |
| DLTR Dollar Tree | USD 137.94 | 0.3% | 16.3 | 7.7 | – | 72 |
| CCH.L Coca-Cola HBC AG | GBP 41.18 | -0.8% | 19.4 | 4.7 | 2.1% | 90 |
| Peer median | 16.3 | 1.9 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: SEK 9.00 per share · yield 3.19% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 9.000 |
| 2025 | 8.750 |
| 2024 | 8.500 |
| 2023 | 8.150 |
| 2022 | 7.716 |
| 2021 | 7.437 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 14:19
| Revenue | SEK 90,334,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | SEK 7,724,000,000 |
| EBIT | SEK 3,588,000,000 |
| Net income | SEK 2,466,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | SEK 4,905,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | SEK 1,604,000,000 |
| Debt | SEK 16,334,000,000 |
| Cash | SEK 309,000,000 |
| Working capital | SEK -4,545,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 216,843,240 |