Dollar Tree
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates retail discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada. The company offers consumable merchandise comprising everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, food, candy, health, personal care products, and f…
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates retail discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada. The company offers consumable merchandise comprising everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, food, candy, health, personal care products, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise consisting of toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods, including Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.Priced within the modelled range
Other models: USD 111.56–156.73 (median 127.20). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using TTM through 31 Jul 2026 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 6.35% growth, 2.4% terminal growth, and 9.2% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 6.35%, discount rate 9.20%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 6.3% (sector default 5.3%, own revenue history 8.0%, analyst revenue consensus 6.0%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 9.3% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 6.1% a year; the growth assumption used is 6.4%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 138.33 (+0.3%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 127.20 (-7.8%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 138.33 (+0.3%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 111.56 (-19.1%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 156.73 (+13.6%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 137.43 (-0.4%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 417.82 (+202.9%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 91.87 | -50.2% |
| Base USD 138.33 | 0.3% |
| Bull USD 224.70 | 38.6% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 137.94 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.4%, discount 9.2%).
Compare: the market implies 6.3% a year, this model assumes 6.4%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.3% | 172.02 | 136.39 | 111.25 | 92.55 | 78.10 |
| 4.4% | 191.18 | 151.97 | 124.30 | 103.73 | 87.85 |
| 6.4% | 211.80 | 168.72 | 138.33 | 115.74 | 98.30 |
| 8.4% | 233.96 | 186.71 | 153.38 | 128.63 | 109.52 |
| 10.4% | 257.75 | 206.01 | 169.52 | 142.43 | 121.52 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 72 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 3 of 5 years profitable | 12 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +6.8% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 2.2x EBITDA | 10 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 15% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Staples
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLTR (this company) | USD 137.94 | 0.3% | 16.3 | 7.7 | – | 72 |
| ORK.OL Orkla ASA | NOK 103.30 | 31.4% | 14.7 | 2.4 | 9.7% | 82 |
| WN.TO George Weston Limited | CAD 109.72 | 26.2% | 39.8 | 9.1 | 1.2% | 72 |
| KHC Kraft Heinz | USD 25.32 | 25.2% | – | 0.8 | 6.3% | 36 |
| CA.PA Carrefour SA | EUR 13.59 | 24.1% | 29.1 | 0.8 | 8.7% | 72 |
| ABF.L Associated British Foods plc | GBP 19.83 | 19.1% | 15.0 | 1.2 | 3.2% | 82 |
| ADM Archer Daniels Midland | USD 70.47 | 16.8% | 13.7 | 1.4 | 3.0% | 64 |
| AXFO.ST Axfood AB | SEK 281.90 | 8.5% | 24.8 | 8.1 | 3.1% | 70 |
| GIS General Mills | USD 36.46 | 3.4% | – | 2.6 | 6.7% | 52 |
| Peer median | 19.9 | 1.9 | ||||
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 31 Jul 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 12:42
| Revenue | USD 20,068,700,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 3,044,400,000 |
| EBIT | USD 2,188,100,000 |
| Net income | USD 1,612,500,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 1,853,400,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 1,138,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 7,670,800,000 |
| Cash | USD 1,058,100,000 |
| Working capital | USD 441,500,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 190,900,000 |