Howden Joinery Group Plc
About the company
Howden Joinery Group Plc supplies various kitchen, joinery, and hardware products in the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, and the Republic of Ireland. The company's product portfolio includes cabinet, worktops, sinks and taps, flooring, appliances, and handles; internal and external doors, such as fire doors, flooring, stair parts, and general joinery items; and cooking, cleaning, and cooling appliances. The company was formerly known as Galiform Plc and changed its name to Howden Joinery Group Plc in September 2010. Howden Joinery Group Plc was incorporated in 1987 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.
Price within modeled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart.
Other models: GBP 6.56–10.89 (median 7.72). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
The range depends on model assumptions and data; it is not a prediction or investment advice.
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Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using Fiscal year 2025 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 7.06% growth, 3.1% terminal growth, and 10.8% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 7.06%, discount rate 10.80%, terminal growth 3.10% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 7.1% (sector default 7.2%, own revenue history 3.7%, analyst revenue consensus 8.7%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 8.7% a year; the growth assumption used is 7.1%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — GBP 9.23 (+8.9%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— GBP 6.56 (-22.6%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— GBP 9.23 (+8.9%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— GBP 7.72 (-8.8%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— GBP 10.89 (+28.5%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— GBP 9.17 (+8.3%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— GBP 24.83 (+193.1%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear GBP 6.78 | -25.0% |
| Base GBP 9.23 | 8.2% |
| Bull GBP 13.46 | 37.1% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At GBP 8.47 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 3.1%, discount 10.8%).
Compare: the market implies 5.1% a year, this model assumes 7.1%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
Sensitivity: base value per share
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
These are assumption-based scenarios, not a confidence interval. Scroll horizontally to see all discount rates.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.1% | 10.64 | 8.96 | 7.71 | 6.75 | 5.98 |
| 5.1% | 11.67 | 9.81 | 8.44 | 7.38 | 6.55 |
| 7.1% | 12.77 | 10.73 | 9.23 | 8.07 | 7.15 |
| 9.1% | 13.95 | 11.72 | 10.07 | 8.80 | 7.79 |
| 11.1% | 15.22 | 12.78 | 10.97 | 9.59 | 8.49 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
1 month price change: +13.00% · GBP 8.47 · Market data through 06 Nov 2026 ; dashed line is today’s model base value (GBP 9.23). The fair value is today’s estimate, not what the model said in the past.
Saved price history is current through 06 Nov 2026; last refreshed 06 Nov 2026 18:14 (2 hours, 31 minutes ago).
07 Oct 2026Range GBP 7.43 – 8.5906 Nov 2026
Latest news
Headlines provided by EODHD. Articles may mention multiple companies and are not investment recommendations.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 92 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +3.7% a year | 12 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 0.7x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 22% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Discretionary
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWDN.L (this company) | GBP 8.47 | 8.2% | 17.3 | 3.9 | 2.5% | 92 |
| KGF.L Kingfisher plc | GBP 3.75 | 44.8% | 27.2 | 1.1 | 3.3% | 74 |
| BWY.L Bellway p.l.c. | GBP 22.90 | 43.9% | 13.9 | 0.8 | 3.1% | 70 |
| EXPE Expedia Group | USD 272.48 | 41.7% | 17.1 | 21.8 | 0.7% | 100 |
| INCH.L Inchcape plc | GBP 6.39 | 37.5% | 8.9 | 1.9 | 4.2% | 80 |
| ZAL.DE Zalando SE | EUR 27.72 | 36.1% | 109.4 | 2.6 | – | 80 |
| DECK Deckers Brands | USD 87.74 | 34.9% | 11.2 | 5.1 | – | 100 |
| LULU Lululemon Athletica | USD 111.77 | 33.3% | 8.9 | 2.6 | – | 100 |
| BKNG Booking Holdings | USD 168.72 | 28.9% | 17.7 | – | 1.0% | 100 |
| Peer median | 15.5 | 2.6 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: GBP 0.00 per share · yield 0.03% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 0.002 |
| 2025 | 0.002 |
| 2024 | 0.002 |
| 2023 | 0.002 |
| 2022 | 0.002 |
| 2021 | 0.002 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · EODHD annual statements · period ended 31 Dec 2025
| Revenue | GBP 2,418,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | GBP 526,100,000 |
| EBIT | GBP 358,300,000 |
| Net income | GBP 267,700,000 |
| Free cash flow | GBP 342,300,000 |
| Capital expenditures | GBP 156,500,000 |
| Debt | GBP 704,900,000 |
| Cash | GBP 344,500,000 |
| Working capital | GBP 540,400,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 546,800,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | GBP 0.2132 |