Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:21.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 8.46. Growth begins at 7.1% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.1% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 21.8%, net 11.1%, free cash flow 14.2% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (8.7%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 9.23Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range GBP 6.78 to GBP 13.46
9%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

7.6%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 4.06BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 450.02MNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 575.43MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.36Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 14.54Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 8.46
12.4%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

GBP 0 GBP 199.32M GBP 398.64M GBP 597.97M GBP 797.29M FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 2.7% GBP 409.82M 1.8%
Base 8.7% GBP 575.43M 5.3%
Bull 14.7% GBP 797.29M 8.8%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– GBP 2.42BGBP 526.10MGBP 267.70MGBP 342.30M 0.490.630.212.188.46
Year 18.7% GBP 2.63BGBP 571.77MGBP 290.94MGBP 372.01M 0.530.680.232.489.24
Year 27.6% GBP 2.83BGBP 615.51MGBP 313.19MGBP 400.47M 0.570.730.252.809.99
Year 36.2% GBP 3.00BGBP 653.54MGBP 332.55MGBP 425.22M 0.610.780.263.1410.65
Year 45.7% GBP 3.18BGBP 691.06MGBP 351.64MGBP 449.63M 0.640.820.283.5111.31
Year 55.3% GBP 3.34BGBP 727.68MGBP 370.27MGBP 473.46M 0.680.870.293.8911.97
Year 64.9% GBP 3.51BGBP 763.05MGBP 388.27MGBP 496.47M 0.710.910.314.2912.55
Year 74.4% GBP 3.66BGBP 796.78MGBP 405.43MGBP 518.41M 0.740.950.324.7113.10
Year 84.0% GBP 3.81BGBP 828.49MGBP 421.57MGBP 539.04M 0.770.990.345.1413.62
Year 93.5% GBP 3.94BGBP 857.82MGBP 436.49MGBP 558.13M 0.801.020.355.6014.11
Year 103.1% GBP 4.06BGBP 884.41MGBP 450.02MGBP 575.43M 0.821.050.366.0614.54

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.