Expedia Group
About the company
Expedia Group, Inc. operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through B2C, B2B, and trivago segments. The B2C segment includes Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel brand offers various travel products and services; Hotels.com for lodging accommodations; Vrbo, an online marketplace for the alternative accommodations; and Orbitz, Travelocity, ebookers, and Wotif Group. The B2B segment provides various travel and non-travel companies including airlines, offline travel agents, online retailers, corporate travel management, and financial institutions who leverage its travel technology and tap into its diverse supply to augment their offerings and market Expedia Group rates and availabilities to its travelers. The trivago segment sends referrals to online travel companies and travel service providers from hotel metasearch websites. In addition, it provides brand advertising through online and offline channels, loyalty programs, mobile apps, and search engine marketing, as well as metasearch, social media, direct and personalized traveler communications on its websites, and through direct e-mail communication with its travelers. The company was formerly known as Expedia, Inc. and changed its name to Expedia Group, Inc. in March 2018. Expedia Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
Price below modeled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly.
Other models: USD 131.32–309.93 (median 245.17). The recommended value is 62% above that median, so treat the upside with extra caution.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
The range depends on model assumptions and data; it is not a prediction or investment advice.
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Market price below modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using Fiscal year 2025 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 8.92% growth, 3.1% terminal growth, and 10.8% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 8.92%, discount rate 10.80%, terminal growth 3.10% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 8.9% (sector default 7.2%, own revenue history 14.4%, analyst revenue consensus 7.0%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 7.0% a year; the growth assumption used is 8.9%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 396.04 (+45.3%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 131.32 (-51.8%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 396.04 (+45.3%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 2.4x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 309.93 (+13.7%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 2.4x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 245.17 (-10.0%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 392.93 (+44.2%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 2.4x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 611.59 (+124.5%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 296.10 | 8.0% |
| Base USD 396.04 | 31.2% |
| Bull USD 568.73 | 52.1% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 272.48 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 3.1%, discount 10.8%).
Compare: the market implies 0.1% a year, this model assumes 8.9%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
Sensitivity: base value per share
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
These are assumption-based scenarios, not a confidence interval. Scroll horizontally to see all discount rates.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.9% | 455.71 | 386.33 | 334.99 | 295.46 | 264.09 |
| 6.9% | 496.97 | 420.80 | 364.45 | 321.08 | 286.68 |
| 8.9% | 541.27 | 457.79 | 396.04 | 348.54 | 310.87 |
| 10.9% | 588.78 | 497.43 | 429.88 | 377.94 | 336.76 |
| 12.9% | 639.68 | 539.87 | 466.10 | 409.38 | 364.43 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
3 months price change: -13.10% · USD 272.48 · Market data through 05 Nov 2026 ; dashed line is today’s model base value (USD 396.04). The fair value is today’s estimate, not what the model said in the past.
Saved price history is current through 05 Nov 2026; last refreshed 06 Nov 2026 18:14 (1 hour, 16 minutes ago).
10 Aug 2026Range USD 258.86 – 338.6405 Nov 2026
Latest news
Headlines provided by EODHD. Articles may mention multiple companies and are not investment recommendations.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 100 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +8.6% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 0.1x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 23% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Discretionary
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXPE (this company) | USD 272.48 | 41.7% | 17.1 | 21.8 | 0.7% | 100 |
| KGF.L Kingfisher plc | GBP 3.75 | 44.8% | 27.2 | 1.1 | 3.3% | 74 |
| BWY.L Bellway p.l.c. | GBP 22.90 | 43.9% | 13.9 | 0.8 | 3.1% | 70 |
| INCH.L Inchcape plc | GBP 6.39 | 37.5% | 8.9 | 1.9 | 4.2% | 80 |
| ZAL.DE Zalando SE | EUR 27.72 | 36.1% | 109.4 | 2.6 | – | 80 |
| DECK Deckers Brands | USD 87.74 | 34.9% | 11.2 | 5.1 | – | 100 |
| LULU Lululemon Athletica | USD 111.77 | 33.3% | 8.9 | 2.6 | – | 100 |
| BKNG Booking Holdings | USD 168.72 | 28.9% | 17.7 | – | 1.0% | 100 |
| LVS Las Vegas Sands | USD 40.92 | 24.6% | 16.0 | – | 3.4% | 86 |
| Peer median | 14.9 | 2.3 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 1.84 per share · yield 0.68% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 1.440 |
| 2025 | 1.600 |
| 2020 | 0.340 |
| 2019 | 0.340 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · SEC EDGAR annual filings · period ended 31 Dec 2025
| Revenue | USD 14,733,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 2,758,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 1,871,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 1,294,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 3,110,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD -770,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 6,161,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 5,413,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD -4,458,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 131,943,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 1.6000 |