Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Expedia Group (EXPE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 05 Nov 2026 16:06.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 272.48. Growth begins at 8.9% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.1% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 21.2%, net 13.0%, free cash flow 26.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (7.0%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 387.07Model fair value (EV/EBITDA (12x)); range USD 330.92 to USD 443.22
42%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Normalised free-cash-flow DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

5.5%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 28.38BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 2.61BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 7.64BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 2.25Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 444.53Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 272.48
22.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 2.65B USD 5.29B USD 7.94B USD 10.58B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 1.0% USD 5.45B 2.2%
Base 7.0% USD 7.64B 5.7%
Bull 13.0% USD 10.58B 9.2%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 16.23BUSD 3.43BUSD 2.11BUSD 4.37B 17.2335.751.8213.51272.48
Year 17.0% USD 17.37BUSD 3.67BUSD 2.12BUSD 4.68B 17.3738.261.8329.05292.03
Year 27.7% USD 18.70BUSD 3.96BUSD 2.15BUSD 5.04B 17.5541.191.8544.75312.47
Year 37.6% USD 20.12BUSD 4.26BUSD 2.16BUSD 5.42B 17.6444.331.8660.53331.76
Year 47.0% USD 21.53BUSD 4.55BUSD 2.15BUSD 5.80B 17.5447.431.8576.23347.41
Year 56.3% USD 22.89BUSD 4.84BUSD 2.11BUSD 6.17B 17.2450.431.8291.65358.61
Year 65.7% USD 24.19BUSD 5.12BUSD 2.23BUSD 6.52B 18.2253.301.92107.95379.00
Year 75.0% USD 25.41BUSD 5.38BUSD 2.34BUSD 6.85B 19.1455.992.02125.07398.10
Year 84.4% USD 26.53BUSD 5.61BUSD 2.44BUSD 7.15B 19.9858.452.11142.95415.59
Year 93.7% USD 27.52BUSD 5.82BUSD 2.53BUSD 7.41B 20.7360.642.18161.49431.16
Year 103.1% USD 28.38BUSD 6.00BUSD 2.61BUSD 7.64B 21.3762.522.25180.61444.53

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.