Deckers Brands
About the company
Deckers Outdoor Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, markets, and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories for casual lifestyle use and high-performance activities in the United States and internationally. The company offers footwear, apparel, and accessories under the UGG brand; footwear, such as running, trail, hiking, fitness, and lifestyle shoes, as well as apparel and accessories under the HOKA brand; and sandals, shoes, and boots under the Teva brand name. It also provides a casual footwear fashion line under the Koolaburra brand name; and footwear products under the AHNU brand name. The company sells its products through domestic and international retailers, international distributors, and directly to its consumers through its direct-to-consumer business, which includes e-commerce websites and retail stores. Deckers Outdoor Corporation was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Goleta, California.
Price below modeled range
Other models: USD 104.88–133.63 (median 109.12). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
The range depends on model assumptions and data; it is not a prediction or investment advice.
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Market price below modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using TTM through 30 Sep 2026 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 8.41% growth, 3.1% terminal growth, and 10.8% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 8.41%, discount rate 10.80%, terminal growth 3.10% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 8.4% (sector default 7.2%, own revenue history 14.8%, analyst revenue consensus 5.8%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 13.5% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 5.8% a year; the growth assumption used is 8.4%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 134.81 (+53.7%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 104.88 (+19.5%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 134.81 (+53.7%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 109.12 (+24.4%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 133.63 (+52.3%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 133.87 (+52.6%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 288.74 (+229.1%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 102.54 | 14.4% |
| Base USD 134.81 | 34.9% |
| Bull USD 190.58 | 54.0% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 87.74 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 3.1%, discount 10.8%).
Compare: the market implies -2.3% a year, this model assumes 8.4%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
Sensitivity: base value per share
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
These are assumption-based scenarios, not a confidence interval. Scroll horizontally to see all discount rates.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.4% | 153.92 | 131.56 | 115.02 | 102.28 | 92.17 |
| 6.4% | 167.29 | 142.74 | 124.57 | 110.59 | 99.50 |
| 8.4% | 181.65 | 154.73 | 134.81 | 119.49 | 107.34 |
| 10.4% | 197.06 | 167.58 | 145.79 | 129.03 | 115.74 |
| 12.4% | 213.57 | 181.35 | 157.54 | 139.23 | 124.72 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
1 month price change: +9.16% · USD 87.74 · Market data through 05 Nov 2026 ; dashed line is today’s model base value (USD 134.81). The fair value is today’s estimate, not what the model said in the past.
Saved price history is current through 05 Nov 2026; last refreshed 06 Nov 2026 18:14 (2 hours, 30 minutes ago).
07 Oct 2026Range USD 80.37 – 89.1105 Nov 2026
Latest news
Headlines provided by EODHD. Articles may mention multiple companies and are not investment recommendations.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 100 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +11.4% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net cash | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 26% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Discretionary
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DECK (this company) | USD 87.74 | 34.9% | 11.2 | 5.1 | – | 100 |
| KGF.L Kingfisher plc | GBP 3.75 | 44.8% | 27.2 | 1.1 | 3.3% | 74 |
| BWY.L Bellway p.l.c. | GBP 22.90 | 43.9% | 13.9 | 0.8 | 3.1% | 70 |
| EXPE Expedia Group | USD 272.48 | 41.7% | 17.1 | 21.8 | 0.7% | 100 |
| INCH.L Inchcape plc | GBP 6.39 | 37.5% | 8.9 | 1.9 | 4.2% | 80 |
| ZAL.DE Zalando SE | EUR 27.72 | 36.1% | 109.4 | 2.6 | – | 80 |
| LULU Lululemon Athletica | USD 111.77 | 33.3% | 8.9 | 2.6 | – | 100 |
| BKNG Booking Holdings | USD 168.72 | 28.9% | 17.7 | – | 1.0% | 100 |
| LVS Las Vegas Sands | USD 40.92 | 24.6% | 16.0 | – | 3.4% | 86 |
| Peer median | 16.5 | 2.3 | ||||
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 20:19
| Revenue | USD 5,577,003,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 1,450,777,000 |
| EBIT | USD 1,378,139,000 |
| Net income | USD 1,059,823,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 1,052,604,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 75,856,000 |
| Debt | USD 539,520,000 |
| Cash | USD 1,209,722,000 |
| Working capital | USD 1,842,566,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 135,300,000 |