Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Deckers Brands (DECK)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:42.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 87.74. Growth begins at 8.4% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.1% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 26.0%, net 19.0%, free cash flow 18.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 5.1 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (5.8%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 134.81Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 102.54 to USD 190.58
54%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

9.0%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 9.42BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 1.79BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 1.78BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 207.93Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 87.74
15.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 590.66M USD 1.18B USD 1.77B USD 2.36B FY2022 FY2024 FY2026 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 0.7% USD 1.33B 2.3%
Base 5.8% USD 1.78B 5.4%
Bull 10.9% USD 2.36B 8.4%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 5.58BUSD 1.45BUSD 1.06BUSD 1.05B 7.837.78n/an/a87.74
Year 15.8% USD 5.90BUSD 1.54BUSD 1.12BUSD 1.11B 8.298.23n/an/a100.31
Year 26.8% USD 6.30BUSD 1.64BUSD 1.20BUSD 1.19B 8.858.79n/an/a115.13
Year 37.2% USD 6.76BUSD 1.76BUSD 1.28BUSD 1.28B 9.499.43n/an/a132.01
Year 46.6% USD 7.21BUSD 1.87BUSD 1.37BUSD 1.36B 10.1210.05n/an/a149.90
Year 56.1% USD 7.64BUSD 1.99BUSD 1.45BUSD 1.44B 10.7410.66n/an/a168.64
Year 65.5% USD 8.06BUSD 2.10BUSD 1.53BUSD 1.52B 11.3211.25n/an/a177.85
Year 74.9% USD 8.45BUSD 2.20BUSD 1.61BUSD 1.60B 11.8711.79n/an/a186.51
Year 84.3% USD 8.82BUSD 2.29BUSD 1.68BUSD 1.66B 12.3812.30n/an/a194.50
Year 93.7% USD 9.14BUSD 2.38BUSD 1.74BUSD 1.73B 12.8412.75n/an/a201.67
Year 103.1% USD 9.42BUSD 2.45BUSD 1.79BUSD 1.78B 13.2413.15n/an/a207.93

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.