DHL Group
DHL AG provides logistics and mail communication services in Germany and Internationally. The company operates through five segments: Express, Global Forwarding, Supply Chain, eCommerce, and Post and Parcel Germany. Its Express segment offers time-definite courier and express delivery services for …
DHL AG provides logistics and mail communication services in Germany and Internationally. The company operates through five segments: Express, Global Forwarding, Supply Chain, eCommerce, and Post and Parcel Germany. Its Express segment offers time-definite courier and express delivery services for business and private customers, including Time Definite International cross-border transport with standardized transit times, medical express temperature-controlled shipment solutions, general cargo air freight, door-to-door courier services, and customs clearance, operating a global air freight network with dedicated aircraft and service points across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the Americas, and Asia Pacific. The Global Forwarding segment provides international air, ocean, and overland freight forwarding services through its Global Forwarding and Freight business units. The Supply Chain segment delivers contract logistics services and supply chain solutions built on modular components, including warehousing, transport, e-fulfillment, and value-added services. The eCommerce segment provides international and domestic parcel delivery services in selected countries across Europe, Asia, and the United States, along with non-TDI cross-border parcel services. The Post and Parcel Germany segment transports, sorts, and delivers documents and goods within Germany and provides export services through its Post Germany, Parcel Germany, and International business units, offering physical and hybrid letter delivery, registered mail, insured items, redirection and storage services, dialogue marketing, national and international parcel and goods shipments, Packstation automated parcel lockers, Poststation combined parcel and postal services, and electronic communications services. DHL AG was formerly known as Deutsche Post AG and changed its name to DHL AG in September, 2026. DHL AG was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Bonn, Germany.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart.
Other models: EUR 42.29–106.19 (median 56.44). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using TTM through 30 Jun 2026 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 2% growth, 2.7% terminal growth, and 10% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 2%, discount rate 10%, terminal growth 2.70% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 2.0% (sector default 6.2%, own revenue history -4.3%, analyst revenue consensus 2.9%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 2.9% a year; the growth assumption used is 2.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — EUR 54.15 (-7.3%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— EUR 42.29 (-27.6%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— EUR 54.15 (-7.3%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— EUR 56.44 (-3.4%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— EUR 106.19 (+81.7%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— EUR 54.24 (-7.2%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— EUR 221.35 (+278.8%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear EUR 35.03 | -66.8% |
| Base EUR 54.15 | -7.9% |
| Bull EUR 88.16 | 33.7% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At EUR 58.44 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.7%, discount 10.0%).
Compare: the market implies 3.3% a year, this model assumes 2.0%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0% | 65.38 | 51.94 | 42.16 | 34.74 | 28.91 |
| 0.0% | 73.59 | 58.73 | 47.93 | 39.74 | 33.30 |
| 2.0% | 82.44 | 66.05 | 54.15 | 45.12 | 38.03 |
| 4.0% | 91.97 | 73.93 | 60.84 | 50.90 | 43.10 |
| 6.0% | 102.23 | 82.40 | 68.02 | 57.11 | 48.55 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 74 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue -2.6% a year | 4 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 2.0x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 14% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Industrials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHL.DE (this company) | EUR 58.44 | -7.9% | 17.6 | 2.9 | 3.2% | 74 |
| EZJ.L easyJet plc | GBP 6.88 | 74.3% | 10.6 | 1.5 | 1.7% | 78 |
| WAWI.OL Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA | NOK 160.80 | 64.8% | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.3% | 100 |
| IAG.L International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. | GBP 4.37 | 58.9% | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.8% | 92 |
| TPK.L Travis Perkins plc | GBP 6.54 | 54.7% | – | 0.8 | 2.1% | 46 |
| SRP.L Serco Group plc | GBP 2.77 | 46.2% | 19.7 | 3.3 | 1.5% | 82 |
| DFDS.CO DFDS A/S | DKK 157.30 | 45.9% | – | 0.6 | – | 64 |
| DG.PA VINCI SA | EUR 111.75 | 42.2% | 12.9 | 2.1 | 4.2% | 90 |
| HAFNI.OL Hafnia Limited | NOK 89.00 | 40.8% | 7.2 | 1.8 | 1.2% | 100 |
| Peer median | 9.3 | 1.9 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: EUR 1.90 per share · yield 3.25% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 1.900 |
| 2025 | 1.850 |
| 2024 | 1.850 |
| 2023 | 1.850 |
| 2022 | 1.800 |
| 2021 | 1.350 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Jun 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 05 Nov 2026 16:05
| Revenue | EUR 85,007,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | EUR 11,904,000,000 |
| EBIT | EUR 6,965,000,000 |
| Net income | EUR 3,722,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | EUR 6,185,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | EUR 2,871,000,000 |
| Debt | EUR 27,972,000,000 |
| Cash | EUR 4,291,000,000 |
| Working capital | EUR 627,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 1,122,222,222 |