Aker BP ASA
About the company
Aker BP ASA engages in the exploration, field development, and production of oil and gas on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. It operates field centers, including Valhall, Ula, Edvard Grieg/Ivar Aasen, Alvheim, and Skarv. The company was formerly known as Det norske oljeselskap ASA and changed its name to Aker BP ASA in October 2016. Aker BP ASA was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Lysaker, Norway.
Price above modeled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly.
Other models: NOK 282.59–1920.72 (median 483.48). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
The range depends on model assumptions and data; it is not a prediction or investment advice.
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Market price above modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using a three-year average of free cash flow, because the latest figure is depressed by heavy investment or one-off items, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 2.9% growth, 2.5% terminal growth, and 9.2% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice. Low confidence: the modelled value is far from the market price, which usually means the model does not capture this company well (for example expected growth well above its history).
Assumptions: growth 2.90%, discount rate 9.20%, terminal growth 2.50% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 2.9% (sector default 4.6%, own revenue history 18.0%, analyst revenue consensus -5.5%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of -5.5% a year; the growth assumption used is 2.9%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — NOK 104.95 (-66.9%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— NOK 483.48 (+52.6%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— NOK 289.06 (-8.8%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— NOK 282.59 (-10.8%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— NOK 1920.72 (+506.3%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— NOK 288.83 (-8.8%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— NOK 2800.60 (+784.0%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear NOK 58.80 | -438.7% |
| Base NOK 104.95 | -201.9% |
| Bull NOK 182.06 | -74.0% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At NOK 316.80 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.5%, discount 9.2%).
Compare: the market implies 16.1% a year, this model assumes 2.9%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
Sensitivity: base value per share
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
These are assumption-based scenarios, not a confidence interval. Scroll horizontally to see all discount rates.
| Growth \ Discount | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.1% | 190.90 | 142.37 | 108.31 | 83.07 | 63.63 |
| 0.9% | 217.66 | 164.07 | 126.47 | 98.63 | 77.18 |
| 2.9% | 246.52 | 187.46 | 146.03 | 115.36 | 91.75 |
| 4.9% | 277.61 | 212.63 | 167.07 | 133.35 | 107.40 |
| 6.9% | 311.05 | 239.70 | 189.67 | 152.67 | 124.19 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
5 years price change: +40.73% · NOK 319.30 · Market data through 05 Nov 2026 ; dashed line is today’s model base value (NOK 104.95). The fair value is today’s estimate, not what the model said in the past.
Saved price history is current through 05 Nov 2026; last refreshed 06 Nov 2026 18:14 (1 hour, 16 minutes ago).
08 Nov 2021Range NOK 169.17 – 379.7405 Nov 2026
Latest news
Headlines provided by EODHD. Articles may mention multiple companies and are not investment recommendations.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 88 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 4 of 5 years | 16 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +0.4% a year | 12 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 0.5x EBITDA | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 87% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Energy
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKRBP.OL (this company) | NOK 316.80 | -201.9% | 10.0 | 1.7 | 0.8% | 88 |
| HBR.L Harbour Energy plc | GBP 2.63 | 61.7% | – | 1.4 | 7.9% | 92 |
| FANG Diamondback Energy | USD 179.58 | 36.7% | 24.4 | 1.3 | 2.4% | 100 |
| SHEL.L Shell plc | GBP 37.23 | 32.4% | 8.6 | 1.4 | 3.0% | 84 |
| AKSO.OL Aker Solutions ASA | NOK 36.00 | 22.7% | 6.8 | 1.5 | 9.1% | 75 |
| BP.L BP p.l.c. | GBP 5.59 | 18.4% | – | – | 4.4% | 69 |
| BWLPG.OL BW LPG Limited | NOK 203.60 | 9.4% | 7.4 | 1.7 | 1.3% | 100 |
| EOG EOG Resources | USD 144.89 | 6.1% | 11.1 | 2.4 | 2.8% | 92 |
| TTE.PA TotalEnergies SE | EUR 79.73 | 4.8% | 9.0 | 1.5 | 4.2% | 84 |
| Peer median | 8.8 | 1.5 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: NOK 24.99 per share · yield 7.89% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 24.995 |
| 2025 | 26.275 |
| 2024 | 25.978 |
| 2023 | 23.253 |
| 2022 | 19.778 |
| 2021 | 11.502 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 12:43
| Revenue | NOK 121,621,373,147 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | NOK 105,745,073,851 |
| EBIT | NOK 84,828,858,775 |
| Net income | NOK 19,947,941,488 |
| Free cash flow | NOK 15,357,816,549 |
| Capital expenditures | NOK 71,305,022,035 |
| Debt | NOK 78,274,898,095 |
| Cash | NOK 21,691,586,734 |
| Working capital | NOK 7,725,487,033 |
| Shares outstanding | 631,200,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | NOK 2.6150 |