Bavarian Nordic A/S
About the company
Bavarian Nordic A/S develops, manufactures, and supplies life-saving vaccines. The company offers non-replicating smallpox and monkeypox vaccines under the IMVAMUNE, IMVANEX, and JYNNEOS names; rabies vaccine for human use under the Rabipur/RabAvert name; tick-borne encephalitis vaccine under the Encepur name; Vaxchora, an oral vaccine for immunization against cholera; and Vivotif/Typhoral, an oral vaccine for immunization against typhoid fever. It is also developing MVA-BN WEV, that is in phase 2 trial for the treatment of encephalitis viruses. It operates in the United States, Denmark, Canada, France, Germany, Singapore, England, Finland, Switzerland, Japan, Austria, Italy, Spain, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, Australia, and internationally. Bavarian Nordic A/S was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark.
Price within modeled range
Other models: DKK 250.03–443.65 (median 274.97). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
The range depends on model assumptions and data; it is not a prediction or investment advice.
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Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using TTM through 30 Jun 2026 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 5.33% growth, 2.9% terminal growth, and 10.5% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 5.33%, discount rate 10.50%, terminal growth 2.90% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 5.3% (sector default 6.8%, own revenue history 25.6%, analyst revenue consensus -5.5%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 5.4% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of -5.5% a year; the growth assumption used is 5.3%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — DKK 273.76 (+13.6%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— DKK 274.97 (+14.1%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— DKK 273.76 (+13.6%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— DKK 250.03 (+3.7%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— DKK 443.65 (+84.1%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— DKK 272.86 (+13.2%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— DKK 808.26 (+235.4%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear DKK 212.84 | -13.2% |
| Base DKK 273.76 | 12.0% |
| Bull DKK 379.76 | 36.5% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At DKK 241.00 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.9%, discount 10.5%).
Compare: the market implies 1.9% a year, this model assumes 5.3%. The model is more optimistic than the price, which is why it reads as undervalued.
Sensitivity: base value per share
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
These are assumption-based scenarios, not a confidence interval. Scroll horizontally to see all discount rates.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.3% | 308.83 | 266.77 | 235.76 | 211.96 | 193.11 |
| 3.3% | 334.55 | 288.22 | 254.08 | 227.88 | 207.15 |
| 5.3% | 362.22 | 311.28 | 273.76 | 244.98 | 222.21 |
| 7.3% | 391.96 | 336.06 | 294.89 | 263.33 | 238.36 |
| 9.3% | 423.89 | 362.64 | 317.55 | 282.98 | 255.65 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
1 year price change: +28.88% · DKK 241.00 · Market data through 06 Nov 2026 ; dashed line is today’s model base value (DKK 273.76). The fair value is today’s estimate, not what the model said in the past.
Saved price history is current through 06 Nov 2026; last refreshed 06 Nov 2026 18:14 (1 hour, 23 minutes ago).
06 Nov 2025Range DKK 172.50 – 256.2006 Nov 2026
Latest news
Headlines provided by EODHD. Articles may mention multiple companies and are not investment recommendations.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 92 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 4 of 5 years profitable | 16 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 4 of 5 years | 16 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +18.9% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net cash | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 42% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Health Care
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAVA.CO (this company) | DKK 241.00 | 12.0% | 11.9 | 1.4 | – | 92 |
| CNC Centene Corporation | USD 74.17 | 41.6% | 25.1 | 1.7 | – | 72 |
| ZEAL.CO Zealand Pharma A/S | DKK 232.90 | 36.5% | 6.0 | 0.9 | – | 72 |
| CI Cigna | USD 301.48 | 28.8% | 12.4 | 1.9 | 2.0% | 70 |
| CVS CVS Health | USD 81.33 | 12.4% | 9.5 | 1.3 | 3.3% | 70 |
| AMP.MI Amplifon S.p.A. | EUR 11.17 | 8.7% | 41.1 | – | 2.6% | 72 |
| ZBH Zimmer Biomet | USD 106.85 | 0.5% | 26.6 | 1.6 | 0.9% | 90 |
| GSK.L GSK plc | GBP 18.90 | -5.4% | 17.7 | 4.1 | 3.5% | 92 |
| SAN.PA Sanofi | EUR 83.74 | -5.5% | 13.1 | – | 4.7% | 92 |
| Peer median | 15.4 | 1.6 | ||||
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Jun 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 19:30
| Revenue | DKK 6,297,390,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | DKK 2,622,810,000 |
| EBIT | DKK 1,891,674,000 |
| Net income | DKK 1,542,646,000 |
| Free cash flow | DKK 1,238,316,000 |
| Capital expenditures | DKK 199,892,000 |
| Debt | DKK 131,339,000 |
| Cash | DKK 2,357,585,000 |
| Working capital | DKK 5,665,852,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 75,960,504 |