Bavarian Nordic A/S
Bavarian Nordic A/S develops, manufactures, and supplies life-saving vaccines. The company offers non-replicating smallpox and monkeypox vaccines under the IMVAMUNE, IMVANEX, and JYNNEOS names; rabies vaccine for human use under the Rabipur/RabAvert name; tick-borne encephalitis vaccine under the E…
Bavarian Nordic A/S develops, manufactures, and supplies life-saving vaccines. The company offers non-replicating smallpox and monkeypox vaccines under the IMVAMUNE, IMVANEX, and JYNNEOS names; rabies vaccine for human use under the Rabipur/RabAvert name; tick-borne encephalitis vaccine under the Encepur name; Vaxchora, an oral vaccine for immunization against cholera; and Vivotif/Typhoral, an oral vaccine for immunization against typhoid fever. It is also developing MVA-BN WEV, that is in phase 2 trial for the treatment of encephalitis viruses. It operates in the United States, Denmark, Canada, France, Germany, Singapore, England, Finland, Switzerland, Japan, Austria, Italy, Spain, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, Australia, and internationally. Bavarian Nordic A/S was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark.Looks undervalued
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price below modeled range
Showing the EV/Sales (Rule of 40) you selected on the company card, using 5.33% growth, 2.9% terminal growth and 10.5% discount. The range varies these assumptions slightly; it is illustrative, not investment advice. Low confidence: the modelled value is far from the market price, which usually means the model does not capture this company well (for example expected growth well above its history).
Assumptions: growth 5.33%, discount rate 10.50%, terminal growth 2.90% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 5.3% (sector default 6.8%, own revenue history 25.6%, analyst revenue consensus -5.5%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 5.4% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of -5.5% a year; the growth assumption used is 5.3%.
Adjust assumptions
Show the recommended model instead
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — DKK 273.76 (+14.9%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— DKK 274.97 (+15.4%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— DKK 273.76 (+14.9%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— DKK 250.03 (+5.0%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— DKK 443.65 (+86.3%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— DKK 272.86 (+14.5%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— DKK 808.26 (+239.3%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear DKK 613.52 | 61.2% |
| Base DKK 808.26 | 70.5% |
| Bull DKK 1002.99 | 76.3% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
5 years price change: -8.67% · DKK 245.40 · Market data through 05 Nov 2026 ; dashed line is today’s model base value (DKK 808.26). The fair value is today’s estimate, not what the model said in the past.
Saved price history is current through 05 Nov 2026; last refreshed 06 Nov 2026 08:12 (7 hours, 18 minutes ago).
03 Jan 2022Range DKK 126.60 – 386.0005 Nov 2026
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 92 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 4 of 5 years profitable | 16 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 4 of 5 years | 16 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +18.9% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net cash | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 42% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Health Care
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAVA.CO (this company) | DKK 238.20 | 13.0% | 11.7 | 1.4 | – | 92 |
| CNC Centene Corporation | USD 72.02 | 43.3% | 24.4 | 1.6 | – | 72 |
| ZEAL.CO Zealand Pharma A/S | DKK 231.10 | 37.0% | 6.0 | 0.9 | – | 72 |
| CI Cigna | USD 295.59 | 30.1% | 12.2 | 1.8 | 2.1% | 70 |
| CVS CVS Health | USD 81.72 | 12.0% | 9.5 | 1.3 | 3.2% | 70 |
| INCY Incyte | USD 117.12 | 9.5% | 18.3 | 4.5 | – | 100 |
| AMP.MI Amplifon S.p.A. | EUR 11.17 | 8.7% | 41.1 | – | 2.6% | 72 |
| ZBH Zimmer Biomet | USD 106.85 | 0.5% | 26.6 | 1.6 | 0.9% | 90 |
| GSK.L GSK plc | GBP 18.47 | -3.0% | 17.3 | 4.0 | 3.6% | 92 |
| Peer median | 17.8 | 1.6 | ||||
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Jun 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 15:25
| Revenue | DKK 6,297,390,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | DKK 2,622,810,000 |
| EBIT | DKK 1,891,674,000 |
| Net income | DKK 1,542,646,000 |
| Free cash flow | DKK 1,238,316,000 |
| Capital expenditures | DKK 199,892,000 |
| Debt | DKK 131,339,000 |
| Cash | DKK 2,357,585,000 |
| Working capital | DKK 5,665,852,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 75,960,504 |