Incyte
Incyte Corporation, a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapeutics in the United States, Europe, Canada, and Japan. The company offers JAKAFI for the treatment of myelofibrosis (MF), polycythemia vera, and steroid-refractory acute graft-ver…
Incyte Corporation, a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapeutics in the United States, Europe, Canada, and Japan. The company offers JAKAFI for the treatment of myelofibrosis (MF), polycythemia vera, and steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease; ICLUSIG, a kinase inhibitor to treat chronic myeloid leukemia and Philadelphia-chromosome positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia; MONJUVI/MINJUVI for the treatment of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and Follicular Lymphoma; NIKTIMVO for the treatment of chronic graft-versus-host disease. It also provides INCA033989 for the treatment of essential thrombocythemia and MF; INCA035784 for the treatment of anti-mutant calreticulin and myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs); INCB160058 for the treatment of MPNs; PEMAZYRE, a selective fibroblast growth factor receptor kinase inhibitor for the treatment of unresectable biliary tract cancer, metastatic cholangiocarcinoma, and myeloid/lymphoid neoplasms; ZYNYZ to treat adults with metastatic or recurrent locally advanced Merkel cell carcinoma. The company's clinical stage products include INCB123667 for ovarian cancer; INCB161734 for solid tumors; INCA33890 for cancers; Ruxolitinib cream for atopic dermatitis, hidradenitis suppurativa (HS), and prurigo nodularis; Povorcitinib for HS, nonsegmental vitiligo, prurigo nodularis, and asthma; and INCB00928 for the treatment of fibrodysplasia ossificans progressive. It has collaboration and license agreement with Novartis, Lilly, and Syndax. The company sells its products to specialty and retail pharmacies, hospital pharmacies, and distributors. Incyte Corporation has a clinical trial collaboration with Genmab A/S to evaluate petosemtamab. The company was formerly known as Incyte Genomics Inc and changed its name to Incyte Corporation in March 2003. Incyte Corporation was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware.Looks overvalued
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly.
Other models: USD 26.87–70.31 (median 64.40). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price above modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using TTM through 30 Sep 2026 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 7.16% growth, 2.9% terminal growth, and 10.5% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 7.16%, discount rate 10.50%, terminal growth 2.90% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 7.2% (sector default 6.8%, own revenue history 14.6%, analyst revenue consensus 3.6%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 3.6% a year; the growth assumption used is 7.2%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 73.29 (-37.9%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 26.87 (-77.2%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 73.29 (-37.9%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 64.40 (-45.4%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 70.31 (-40.4%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 72.97 (-38.2%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 147.02 (+24.6%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 59.66 | -97.8% |
| Base USD 73.29 | -61.0% |
| Bull USD 97.03 | -21.6% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 118.01 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.9%, discount 10.5%).
Compare: the market implies 22.4% a year, this model assumes 7.2%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.2% | 81.41 | 71.91 | 64.91 | 59.54 | 55.29 |
| 5.2% | 87.09 | 76.65 | 68.95 | 63.05 | 58.38 |
| 7.2% | 93.20 | 81.74 | 73.29 | 66.82 | 61.70 |
| 9.2% | 99.76 | 87.20 | 77.95 | 70.86 | 65.25 |
| 11.2% | 106.80 | 93.05 | 82.94 | 75.18 | 69.05 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 90 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +15.4% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net cash | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 15% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Health Care
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INCY (this company) | USD 118.01 | -61.0% | 59.5 | 4.3 | – | 90 |
| CNC Centene Corporation | USD 74.17 | 41.6% | 25.1 | 1.7 | – | 72 |
| ZEAL.CO Zealand Pharma A/S | DKK 235.70 | 35.7% | 6.1 | 0.9 | – | 72 |
| CI Cigna | USD 301.48 | 28.8% | 12.4 | 1.9 | 2.0% | 70 |
| CVS CVS Health | USD 81.33 | 12.4% | 9.5 | 1.3 | 3.3% | 70 |
| BAVA.CO Bavarian Nordic A/S | DKK 239.80 | 12.4% | 11.8 | 1.4 | – | 92 |
| AMP.MI Amplifon S.p.A. | EUR 11.17 | 8.7% | 41.1 | – | 2.6% | 72 |
| ZBH Zimmer Biomet | USD 106.85 | 0.5% | 26.6 | 1.6 | 0.9% | 90 |
| GSK.L GSK plc | GBP 18.50 | -3.2% | 17.3 | 4.0 | 3.6% | 92 |
| Peer median | 14.9 | 1.6 | ||||
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 14:03
| Revenue | USD 6,010,754,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 872,804,000 |
| EBIT | USD 798,544,000 |
| Net income | USD 403,411,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 684,871,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 60,121,000 |
| Debt | USD 37,412,000 |
| Cash | USD 3,854,572,000 |
| Working capital | USD 4,083,550,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 203,246,000 |