Starbucks
About the company
Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of coffee internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee, tea, and other beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, complementary food, packaged coffees, single-serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items. The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks Coffee, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Ethos, and Starbucks Reserve brands. Starbucks Corporation was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
Price above modeled range
Other models: USD 27.40–45.23 (median 29.59). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
The range depends on model assumptions and data; it is not a prediction or investment advice.
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Market price above modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using Fiscal year 2026 reported free cash flow, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 5.02% growth, 3.1% terminal growth, and 10.8% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice. Low confidence: the modelled value is far from the market price, which usually means the model does not capture this company well (for example expected growth well above its history).
Assumptions: growth 5.02%, discount rate 10.80%, terminal growth 3.10% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 5.0% (sector default 7.2%, own revenue history 4.1%, analyst revenue consensus 4.4%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 3.1% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 4.4% a year; the growth assumption used is 5.0%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 31.05 (-70.7%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 29.59 (-72.1%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 31.05 (-70.7%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 27.40 (-74.2%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 45.23 (-57.4%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 30.91 (-70.9%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 119.49 (+12.6%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 19.39 | -447.6% |
| Base USD 31.05 | -241.8% |
| Bull USD 51.20 | -107.3% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 106.16 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 3.1%, discount 10.8%).
Compare: the market implies 29.6% a year, this model assumes 5.0%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
Sensitivity: base value per share
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
These are assumption-based scenarios, not a confidence interval. Scroll horizontally to see all discount rates.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0% | 37.55 | 29.60 | 23.71 | 19.17 | 15.57 |
| 3.0% | 42.49 | 33.73 | 27.25 | 22.25 | 18.29 |
| 5.0% | 47.82 | 38.18 | 31.05 | 25.57 | 21.21 |
| 7.0% | 53.54 | 42.97 | 35.14 | 29.12 | 24.34 |
| 9.0% | 59.69 | 48.09 | 39.52 | 32.93 | 27.70 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
1 month price change: +13.44% · USD 106.16 · Market data through 05 Nov 2026 ; dashed line is today’s model base value (USD 31.05). The fair value is today’s estimate, not what the model said in the past.
Saved price history is current through 05 Nov 2026; last refreshed 06 Nov 2026 18:14 (2 hours, 31 minutes ago).
07 Oct 2026Range USD 90.75 – 109.7005 Nov 2026
Latest news
Headlines provided by EODHD. Articles may mention multiple companies and are not investment recommendations.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 72 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +4.1% a year | 12 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 3.2x EBITDA | 10 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 15% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Discretionary
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX (this company) | USD 106.16 | -241.8% | 48.0 | – | 2.3% | 72 |
| KGF.L Kingfisher plc | GBP 3.75 | 44.8% | 27.2 | 1.1 | 3.3% | 74 |
| BWY.L Bellway p.l.c. | GBP 22.90 | 43.9% | 13.9 | 0.8 | 3.1% | 70 |
| EXPE Expedia Group | USD 272.48 | 41.7% | 17.1 | 21.8 | 0.7% | 100 |
| INCH.L Inchcape plc | GBP 6.39 | 37.5% | 8.9 | 1.9 | 4.2% | 80 |
| ZAL.DE Zalando SE | EUR 27.72 | 36.1% | 109.4 | 2.6 | – | 80 |
| DECK Deckers Brands | USD 87.74 | 34.9% | 11.2 | 5.1 | – | 100 |
| LULU Lululemon Athletica | USD 111.77 | 33.3% | 8.9 | 2.6 | – | 100 |
| BKNG Booking Holdings | USD 168.72 | 28.9% | 17.7 | – | 1.0% | 100 |
| Peer median | 15.5 | 2.6 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 2.48 per share · yield 2.34% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 1.860 |
| 2025 | 2.450 |
| 2024 | 2.320 |
| 2023 | 2.160 |
| 2022 | 2.000 |
| 2021 | 1.840 |
Annual financial statement
Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2026 · EODHD annual statements · period ended 30 Sep 2026
| Revenue | USD 37,910,600,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 5,855,700,000 |
| EBIT | USD 4,372,400,000 |
| Net income | USD 2,526,700,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 3,724,800,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 1,263,600,000 |
| Debt | USD 22,413,600,000 |
| Cash | USD 3,864,200,000 |
| Working capital | USD -2,442,400,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 1,143,400,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 2.4704 |