Delta Air Lines
Delta Air Lines, Inc. provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Airline and Refinery. Its domestic network centered on core hubs in Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis-St. Paul, and Salt Lake City, a…
Delta Air Lines, Inc. provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Airline and Refinery. Its domestic network centered on core hubs in Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis-St. Paul, and Salt Lake City, as well as coastal hub positions in Boston, Los Angeles, New York-LaGuardia, New York-JFK, and Seattle; and international network centered on hubs and market presence in Amsterdam, Bogota, Lima, Mexico City, London-Heathrow, Paris-Charles de Gaulle, Santiago (Chile), Sao Paulo, Seoul-Incheon, and Tokyo. It also provides aircraft maintenance and engineering support, repair, and overhaul services; and vacation packages. The company operates through a fleet of approximately 1,314 aircraft. Delta Air Lines, Inc. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.Priced within the modelled range
5-year outlook: Not shown because confidence is low: Earnings-based DCF agrees.
Other models: USD 70.24–111.48 (median 98.42). The recommended value is in line with them.
Why: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price within modeled range
Free-cash-flow DCF using a three-year average of free cash flow, because the latest figure is depressed by heavy investment or one-off items, with cash, debt, and shares from the latest report. Base assumptions are 8.2% growth, 2.7% terminal growth, and 10% discount. Low/high cases vary growth by 2 and terminal growth/discount by 1 percentage point; this illustrative range is not a statistical confidence interval or investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 8.20%, discount rate 10%, terminal growth 2.70% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 8.2% (sector default 6.2%, own revenue history 20.7%, analyst revenue consensus 3.0%).
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 3.0% a year; the growth assumption used is 8.2%.
Adjust assumptions
Why this model: Free cash flow is positive and in line with earnings, and the dividend is small, so a cash-flow DCF fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: Free-cash-flow DCF — USD 82.93 (-2.9%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 70.24 (-17.7%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 129.85 (+52.1%)
Not used: Not chosen: Free-cash-flow DCF ranks ahead of it for this company.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 98.42 (+15.3%)
Not used: Assumes only the long-run terminal growth rate from today, so it ignores the near-term growth expected.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 111.48 (+30.6%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 128.76 (+50.8%)
Not used: An alternative growth path (fading over 10 years) shown for comparison; the automatic choice does not use it.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 379.70 (+344.8%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 55.70 | -53.2% |
| Base USD 82.93 | -2.9% |
| Bull USD 131.41 | 35.0% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
At USD 85.36 the market implies about this annual free-cash-flow growth for 5 years (terminal 2.7%, discount 10.0%).
Compare: the market implies 8.8% a year, this model assumes 8.2%. The market expects more than this model does, which is why it reads as overvalued.
How the Free-cash-flow DCF value changes with growth (rows) and discount rate (columns). Green cells are above the current price.
| Growth \ Discount | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.2% | 100.73 | 81.00 | 66.68 | 55.81 | 47.29 |
| 6.2% | 111.92 | 90.25 | 74.52 | 62.59 | 53.23 |
| 8.2% | 123.95 | 100.17 | 82.93 | 69.85 | 59.59 |
| 10.2% | 136.86 | 110.82 | 91.94 | 77.63 | 66.41 |
| 12.2% | 150.69 | 122.23 | 101.59 | 85.96 | 73.70 |
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 76 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 4 of 5 years | 16 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +9.2% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net debt 2.0x EBITDA | 10 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 10% | 10 / 20 |
Peers in Industrials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL (this company) | USD 85.36 | -2.9% | 17.1 | 2.5 | 0.9% | 76 |
| EZJ.L easyJet plc | GBP 6.88 | 74.3% | 10.6 | 1.5 | 1.7% | 78 |
| WAWI.OL Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA | NOK 160.80 | 64.6% | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.3% | 100 |
| IAG.L International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. | GBP 4.37 | 58.9% | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.8% | 92 |
| TPK.L Travis Perkins plc | GBP 6.54 | 54.7% | – | 0.8 | 2.1% | 46 |
| SRP.L Serco Group plc | GBP 2.77 | 46.2% | 19.7 | 3.3 | 1.5% | 82 |
| DFDS.CO DFDS A/S | DKK 157.30 | 45.9% | – | 0.6 | – | 64 |
| DG.PA VINCI SA | EUR 111.75 | 42.2% | 12.9 | 2.1 | 4.2% | 90 |
| HAFNI.OL Hafnia Limited | NOK 89.00 | 40.8% | 7.2 | 1.8 | 1.2% | 100 |
| Peer median | 9.3 | 1.9 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 0.81 per share · yield 0.94% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 0.806 |
| 2025 | 0.676 |
| 2024 | 0.500 |
| 2023 | 0.200 |
| 2020 | 0.403 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 12:56
| Revenue | USD 71,800,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 7,376,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 4,792,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 3,290,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 5,680,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 4,720,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 18,835,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 3,787,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD -20,085,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 659,000,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 0.7906 |