Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

T. Rowe Price (TROW)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:42.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 108.71. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 40.5%, net 28.4%, free cash flow 20.7% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (1.1%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 120.76Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range USD 101.15 to USD 154.38
11%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

10.6%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 9.45BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 2.68BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 1.96BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 6.60Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 237.42Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 108.71
8.4%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

USD 0.00 USD 30.51 USD 61.03 USD 91.54 USD 122.06 FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -4.9% USD 95.64 6.0%
Base 1.1% USD 107.33 7.3%
Bull 7.1% USD 122.06 8.7%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 7.70BUSD 3.12BUSD 2.19BUSD 1.60B 10.247.485.3753.23108.71
Year 11.1% USD 7.79BUSD 3.16BUSD 2.21BUSD 1.62B 10.367.575.4458.16120.74
Year 21.6% USD 7.92BUSD 3.21BUSD 2.25BUSD 1.64B 10.527.695.5263.16133.27
Year 32.1% USD 8.08BUSD 3.27BUSD 2.29BUSD 1.68B 10.747.855.6468.26146.36
Year 42.1% USD 8.25BUSD 3.34BUSD 2.34BUSD 1.71B 10.978.025.7673.48160.04
Year 52.2% USD 8.43BUSD 3.42BUSD 2.39BUSD 1.75B 11.218.195.8878.81174.32
Year 62.2% USD 8.62BUSD 3.49BUSD 2.45BUSD 1.79B 11.468.376.0184.26186.37
Year 72.3% USD 8.82BUSD 3.57BUSD 2.50BUSD 1.83B 11.728.566.1589.83198.69
Year 82.3% USD 9.02BUSD 3.65BUSD 2.56BUSD 1.87B 11.998.766.2995.53211.30
Year 92.4% USD 9.23BUSD 3.74BUSD 2.62BUSD 1.92B 12.278.976.44101.36224.20
Year 102.4% USD 9.45BUSD 3.83BUSD 2.68BUSD 1.96B 12.579.186.60107.33237.42

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.