Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Paccar (PCAR)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:48; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:42.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 102.25. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 7.0% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 13.7%, net 9.7%, free cash flow 8.2% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Starting growth was capped from 7.0% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (net, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (8.5%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 52.54Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 36.48 to USD 81.11
-49%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

4.2%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 40.89BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 4.19BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 3.89BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 2.06Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 136.28Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 102.25
7.2%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 1.35B USD 2.71B USD 4.06B USD 5.42B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 2.5% USD 2.75B 1.7%
Base 8.5% USD 3.89B 5.2%
Bull 14.5% USD 5.42B 8.8%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 28.54BUSD 3.91BUSD 2.76BUSD 2.34B 5.234.431.3639.66102.25
Year 18.5% USD 30.96BUSD 4.24BUSD 3.03BUSD 2.62B 5.754.961.4943.91109.52
Year 25.7% USD 32.74BUSD 4.48BUSD 3.24BUSD 2.85B 6.155.411.6048.46114.23
Year 32.9% USD 33.70BUSD 4.61BUSD 3.38BUSD 3.03B 6.405.731.6653.20115.90
Year 42.9% USD 34.68BUSD 4.75BUSD 3.51BUSD 3.21B 6.666.071.7358.13117.46
Year 52.9% USD 35.67BUSD 4.88BUSD 3.66BUSD 3.39B 6.936.431.8063.26118.90
Year 62.8% USD 36.68BUSD 5.02BUSD 3.76BUSD 3.49B 7.126.611.8568.53122.27
Year 72.8% USD 37.71BUSD 5.16BUSD 3.86BUSD 3.59B 7.326.801.9073.95125.69
Year 82.8% USD 38.75BUSD 5.31BUSD 3.97BUSD 3.69B 7.536.981.9679.52129.17
Year 92.7% USD 39.81BUSD 5.45BUSD 4.08BUSD 3.79B 7.737.172.0185.24132.70
Year 102.7% USD 40.89BUSD 5.60BUSD 4.19BUSD 3.89B 7.947.372.0691.12136.28

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.