Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Company Years Starting growth % Long-run growth %

NatWest Group plc (NWG.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:17.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 5.92. Growth begins at 11.7% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 30.1%, net 19.8%, free cash flow -58.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is negative today, so the projection keeps it negative. It does not model a turnaround.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (8.2%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.

GBP 8.41Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range GBP 7.09 to GBP 10.74

42%Fair value vs today's price

MediumModel confidence

50%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only.

13.8%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead

GBP 55.59BRevenue in year 10 (base)

GBP 11.00BNet income in year 10 (base)

-GBP 32.72BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)

GBP 0.55Dividend per share in year 10 (base)

GBP 17.13Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 5.92

-68.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range

Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
Case	Starting growth	Year 10	Annual growth
Bear	2.2%	GBP 9.81	7.7%
Base	8.2%	GBP 11.19	9.1%
Bull	14.2%	GBP 12.93	10.7%

Base case by year

Year	Growth	Revenue	EBITDA	Net income	Free cash flow	EPS	FCF / share	Dividend / share	Book / share	Implied price
Fiscal year 2025	–	GBP 29.48B	GBP 8.86B	GBP 5.83B	-GBP 17.35B	0.72	-2.13	0.29	4.68	5.92
Year 1	8.2%	GBP 31.89B	GBP 9.59B	GBP 6.31B	-GBP 18.77B	0.78	-2.31	0.32	5.14	6.77
Year 2	9.4%	GBP 34.90B	GBP 10.49B	GBP 6.90B	-GBP 20.54B	0.85	-2.53	0.35	5.64	7.74
Year 3	9.6%	GBP 38.26B	GBP 11.50B	GBP 7.57B	-GBP 22.52B	0.93	-2.77	0.38	6.19	8.82
Year 4	8.6%	GBP 41.55B	GBP 12.49B	GBP 8.22B	-GBP 24.45B	1.01	-3.01	0.41	6.79	10.04
Year 5	7.6%	GBP 44.70B	GBP 13.44B	GBP 8.84B	-GBP 26.30B	1.09	-3.24	0.44	7.44	11.39
Year 6	6.5%	GBP 47.62B	GBP 14.32B	GBP 9.42B	-GBP 28.02B	1.16	-3.45	0.47	8.13	12.44
Year 7	5.5%	GBP 50.24B	GBP 15.10B	GBP 9.94B	-GBP 29.57B	1.22	-3.64	0.50	8.85	13.55
Year 8	4.5%	GBP 52.49B	GBP 15.78B	GBP 10.38B	-GBP 30.89B	1.28	-3.80	0.52	9.61	14.71
Year 9	3.4%	GBP 54.29B	GBP 16.32B	GBP 10.74B	-GBP 31.95B	1.32	-3.93	0.54	10.39	15.90
Year 10	2.4%	GBP 55.59B	GBP 16.71B	GBP 11.00B	-GBP 32.72B	1.35	-4.03	0.55	11.19	17.13

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.