Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.
Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:48; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:29.
Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 54.26. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 4.0% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.6% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 11.7%, net 2.9%, free cash flow -2.2% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.
Confidence: Normalised free-cash-flow DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Normalised free-cash-flow DCF value; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.
| Case | Starting growth | Year 10 | Annual growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.4% | EUR 1.23B | – |
| Base | 9.4% | EUR 1.74B | – |
| Bull | 15.4% | EUR 2.42B | – |
| Year | Growth | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Free cash flow | EPS | FCF / share | Dividend / share | Book / share | Implied price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTM through 30 Jun 2026 | – | EUR 56.22B | EUR 6.58B | EUR 1.62B | -EUR 1.24B | 2.12 | -1.63 | 0.61 | 64.18 | 54.26 |
| Year 1 | 9.4% | EUR 61.49B | EUR 7.18B | EUR 1.97B | -EUR 825.94M | 2.58 | -1.08 | 0.74 | 66.02 | 68.41 |
| Year 2 | 6.2% | EUR 65.28B | EUR 7.60B | EUR 2.31B | -EUR 308.55M | 3.02 | -0.40 | 0.87 | 68.18 | 82.75 |
| Year 3 | 2.9% | EUR 67.18B | EUR 7.80B | EUR 2.60B | EUR 267.30M | 3.40 | 0.35 | 0.98 | 70.60 | 96.09 |
| Year 4 | 2.9% | EUR 69.11B | EUR 8.00B | EUR 2.90B | EUR 876.56M | 3.79 | 1.15 | 1.09 | 73.31 | 110.62 |
| Year 5 | 2.8% | EUR 71.06B | EUR 8.20B | EUR 3.21B | EUR 1.52B | 4.21 | 1.99 | 1.21 | 76.31 | 126.40 |
| Year 6 | 2.8% | EUR 73.03B | EUR 8.43B | EUR 3.30B | EUR 1.56B | 4.32 | 2.04 | 1.24 | 79.39 | 129.92 |
| Year 7 | 2.7% | EUR 75.03B | EUR 8.66B | EUR 3.39B | EUR 1.60B | 4.44 | 2.10 | 1.27 | 82.56 | 133.47 |
| Year 8 | 2.7% | EUR 77.04B | EUR 8.89B | EUR 3.48B | EUR 1.65B | 4.56 | 2.16 | 1.31 | 85.82 | 137.06 |
| Year 9 | 2.6% | EUR 79.08B | EUR 9.13B | EUR 3.58B | EUR 1.69B | 4.68 | 2.21 | 1.34 | 89.15 | 140.68 |
| Year 10 | 2.6% | EUR 81.14B | EUR 9.37B | EUR 3.67B | EUR 1.74B | 4.80 | 2.27 | 1.38 | 92.58 | 144.34 |
EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.