Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Mondi plc (MNDI.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:41.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 7.79. Growth begins at 4.7% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.6% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 11.8%, net 2.2%, free cash flow 2.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (5.3%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 2.04Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range GBP 1.58 to GBP 2.85
-74%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

14.5%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 9.22BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 557.68MNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 493.96MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.58Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 25.75Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 7.79
14.4%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

GBP 0.00 GBP 0.50 GBP 1.01 GBP 1.51 GBP 2.02 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -0.7% GBP 0.41 11.1%
Base 5.3% GBP 0.58 15.0%
Bull 11.3% GBP 0.81 18.9%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– GBP 6.39BGBP 756.94MGBP 137.55MGBP 177.63M 0.310.400.148.957.79
Year 15.3% GBP 6.72BGBP 841.06MGBP 197.20MGBP 221.65M 0.450.500.219.1910.76
Year 24.9% GBP 7.05BGBP 928.30MGBP 261.72MGBP 268.77M 0.590.610.279.5113.73
Year 34.2% GBP 7.35BGBP 1.02BGBP 330.02MGBP 317.99M 0.750.720.349.9216.62
Year 44.0% GBP 7.64BGBP 1.11BGBP 402.72MGBP 370.05M 0.910.840.4210.4219.44
Year 53.8% GBP 7.93BGBP 1.20BGBP 479.63MGBP 424.82M 1.090.960.5011.0022.15
Year 63.5% GBP 8.21BGBP 1.24BGBP 496.53MGBP 439.79M 1.131.000.5211.6122.93
Year 73.3% GBP 8.48BGBP 1.28BGBP 512.88MGBP 454.28M 1.161.030.5312.2523.68
Year 83.1% GBP 8.74BGBP 1.32BGBP 528.59MGBP 468.19M 1.201.060.5512.8924.41
Year 92.8% GBP 8.99BGBP 1.36BGBP 543.55MGBP 481.44M 1.231.090.5713.5625.10
Year 102.6% GBP 9.22BGBP 1.40BGBP 557.68MGBP 493.96M 1.271.120.5814.2525.75

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.