Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Informa plc (INF.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:19.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 8.40. Growth begins at 17.1% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 13.3%, net 0.3%, free cash flow 21.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (17.6%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 10.92Model fair value (Normalised free-cash-flow DCF); range GBP 7.50 to GBP 16.91
30%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value; free cash flow is more than 2x earnings, so the cash-flow value may be overstated.

10.9%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 10.54BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 28.68MNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 1.87BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.02Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 23.54Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 8.40
17.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

-GBP 195.20M GBP 489.43M GBP 1.17B GBP 1.86B GBP 2.54B FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 11.6% GBP 1.36B 4.6%
Base 17.6% GBP 1.87B 8.0%
Bull 23.6% GBP 2.54B 11.4%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– GBP 4.04BGBP 539.10MGBP 11.00MGBP 867.50M 0.010.660.204.318.40
Year 117.6% GBP 4.75BGBP 633.77MGBP 12.93MGBP 984.30M 0.010.750.014.3110.02
Year 216.6% GBP 5.54BGBP 738.68MGBP 15.07MGBP 1.11B 0.010.840.014.3111.85
Year 314.0% GBP 6.31BGBP 841.86MGBP 17.18MGBP 1.21B 0.010.930.014.3113.71
Year 412.4% GBP 7.09BGBP 946.14MGBP 19.31MGBP 1.31B 0.011.000.014.3115.63
Year 510.8% GBP 7.86BGBP 1.05BGBP 21.39MGBP 1.39B 0.021.060.024.3117.56
Year 69.2% GBP 8.58BGBP 1.15BGBP 23.36MGBP 1.52B 0.021.160.024.3119.18
Year 77.6% GBP 9.24BGBP 1.23BGBP 25.15MGBP 1.64B 0.021.250.024.3120.64
Year 86.1% GBP 9.80BGBP 1.31BGBP 26.68MGBP 1.74B 0.021.330.024.3121.90
Year 94.5% GBP 10.24BGBP 1.37BGBP 27.87MGBP 1.82B 0.021.390.024.3122.88
Year 102.9% GBP 10.54BGBP 1.41BGBP 28.68MGBP 1.87B 0.021.430.024.3123.54

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.