Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Carrefour SA (CA.PA)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:37.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 13.59. Growth begins at 3.6% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 5.6%, net 0.4%, free cash flow 2.4% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (2.6%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 17.90Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range EUR 13.70 to EUR 25.61
32%Fair value vs today's price
MediumModel confidence
50%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF is somewhat apart; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

6.9%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 111.53BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 423.41MNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 2.69BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 0.62Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 20.90Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 13.59
29.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 0.30 EUR 0.59 EUR 0.89 EUR 1.19 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -3.4% EUR 0.44 -9.5%
Base 2.6% EUR 0.62 -6.3%
Bull 8.6% EUR 0.87 -3.1%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– EUR 84.02BEUR 4.67BEUR 319.00MEUR 2.03B 0.472.971.1916.0713.59
Year 12.6% EUR 86.22BEUR 4.79BEUR 327.33MEUR 2.08B 0.483.050.4816.0714.39
Year 23.1% EUR 88.85BEUR 4.94BEUR 337.33MEUR 2.15B 0.493.140.4916.0715.28
Year 33.4% EUR 91.84BEUR 5.11BEUR 348.68MEUR 2.22B 0.513.250.5116.0716.27
Year 43.2% EUR 94.80BEUR 5.27BEUR 359.93MEUR 2.29B 0.533.350.5316.0717.28
Year 53.1% EUR 97.73BEUR 5.43BEUR 371.05MEUR 2.36B 0.543.460.5416.0718.32
Year 63.0% EUR 100.62BEUR 5.59BEUR 382.00MEUR 2.43B 0.563.560.5616.0718.86
Year 72.8% EUR 103.45BEUR 5.75BEUR 392.74MEUR 2.50B 0.583.660.5816.0719.39
Year 82.7% EUR 106.22BEUR 5.91BEUR 403.25MEUR 2.57B 0.593.760.5916.0719.91
Year 92.5% EUR 108.91BEUR 6.06BEUR 413.49MEUR 2.63B 0.613.850.6116.0720.41
Year 102.4% EUR 111.53BEUR 6.20BEUR 423.41MEUR 2.69B 0.623.950.6216.0720.90

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.