Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

BP p.l.c. (BP.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 04 Nov 2026 15:22.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 5.54. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.5% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 16.2%, net 0.0%, free cash flow 6.0% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
Margins drift toward their 3-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-7.2%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 6.85Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range GBP 4.69 to GBP 10.46
24%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value; free cash flow is more than 2x earnings, so the cash-flow value may be overstated; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

51.6%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 205.39BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 3.31BNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 16.79BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.21Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 353.49Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 5.54
19.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

GBP 0 GBP 7.22B GBP 14.43B GBP 21.65B GBP 28.86B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -13.2% GBP 11.69B 0.4%
Base -7.2% GBP 16.79B 4.1%
Bull -1.2% GBP 23.74B 7.7%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– GBP 189.34BGBP 30.70BGBP 55.00MGBP 11.27B 0.000.710.25n/a5.54
Year 1-7.2% GBP 175.68BGBP 28.51BGBP 607.61MGBP 11.24B 0.040.710.04n/a61.93
Year 2-2.6% GBP 171.16BGBP 27.79BGBP 1.13BGBP 11.71B 0.070.740.07n/a116.95
Year 32.1% GBP 174.77BGBP 28.40BGBP 1.71BGBP 12.74B 0.110.800.11n/a178.56
Year 42.2% GBP 178.56BGBP 29.04BGBP 2.31BGBP 13.80B 0.150.870.15n/a244.19
Year 52.2% GBP 182.52BGBP 29.71BGBP 2.94BGBP 14.92B 0.190.940.19n/a314.14
Year 62.3% GBP 186.68BGBP 30.39BGBP 3.01BGBP 15.26B 0.190.960.19n/a321.29
Year 72.3% GBP 191.04BGBP 31.09BGBP 3.08BGBP 15.62B 0.190.980.19n/a328.79
Year 82.4% GBP 195.60BGBP 31.84BGBP 3.16BGBP 15.99B 0.201.000.20n/a336.64
Year 92.4% GBP 200.38BGBP 32.62BGBP 3.23BGBP 16.38B 0.201.030.20n/a344.87
Year 102.5% GBP 205.39BGBP 33.43BGBP 3.31BGBP 16.79B 0.211.060.21n/a353.49

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.