Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Booking Holdings (BKNG)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:40; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:23.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 165.63. Growth begins at 12.7% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.1% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 38.2%, net 25.5%, free cash flow 32.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (9.2%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 237.26Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 176.26 to USD 342.70
43%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

9.3%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 57.50BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 14.67BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 18.88BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 3.49Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 375.19Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 165.63
15.1%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 6.49B USD 12.99B USD 19.48B USD 25.98B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 3.2% USD 13.55B 3.9%
Base 9.2% USD 18.88B 7.4%
Bull 15.2% USD 25.98B 10.9%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 28.13BUSD 10.73BUSD 7.18BUSD 9.24B 9.5312.271.71n/a165.63
Year 19.2% USD 30.72BUSD 11.73BUSD 7.84BUSD 10.09B 10.4113.401.86n/a184.85
Year 210.4% USD 33.93BUSD 12.95BUSD 8.66BUSD 11.14B 11.5014.802.06n/a208.48
Year 310.6% USD 37.53BUSD 14.32BUSD 9.58BUSD 12.32B 12.7216.372.28n/a235.31
Year 49.5% USD 41.10BUSD 15.68BUSD 10.49BUSD 13.50B 13.9317.922.49n/a262.93
Year 58.4% USD 44.57BUSD 17.01BUSD 11.37BUSD 14.64B 15.1019.442.70n/a290.81
Year 67.4% USD 47.85BUSD 18.26BUSD 12.21BUSD 15.72B 16.2220.872.90n/a312.26
Year 76.3% USD 50.87BUSD 19.42BUSD 12.98BUSD 16.71B 17.2422.193.09n/a331.95
Year 85.2% USD 53.53BUSD 20.43BUSD 13.66BUSD 17.58B 18.1423.353.25n/a349.34
Year 94.2% USD 55.77BUSD 21.28BUSD 14.23BUSD 18.31B 18.9024.323.38n/a363.90
Year 103.1% USD 57.50BUSD 21.94BUSD 14.67BUSD 18.88B 19.4925.083.49n/a375.19

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.