Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; Fiscal year 2026; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:37.

Starts from Fiscal year 2026 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 37.14. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.1% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 18.9%, net 13.4%, free cash flow 12.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 5.8 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-7.3%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 44.31Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range GBP 34.37 to GBP 61.46
19%Fair value vs today's price
MediumModel confidence
50%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

2.0%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 2.66BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 355.15MNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 274.79MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 45.44Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 37.14
7.7%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

-GBP 130.80M -GBP 2.18M GBP 126.44M GBP 255.05M GBP 383.67M FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 Fiscal year 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -13.0% GBP 194.00M -4.4%
Base -7.3% GBP 274.79M -1.1%
Bull -1.5% GBP 383.67M 2.3%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2026– GBP 2.38BGBP 450.10MGBP 318.30MGBP 305.40M 3.313.17n/an/a37.14
Year 1-7.3% GBP 2.21BGBP 417.42MGBP 295.19MGBP 272.26M 3.072.83n/an/a35.11
Year 2-2.6% GBP 2.15BGBP 406.70MGBP 287.61MGBP 254.58M 2.992.65n/an/a34.85
Year 32.2% GBP 2.20BGBP 415.83MGBP 294.06MGBP 249.37M 3.062.59n/an/a36.30
Year 42.4% GBP 2.25BGBP 425.67MGBP 301.02MGBP 244.09M 3.132.54n/an/a37.84
Year 52.5% GBP 2.31BGBP 436.26MGBP 308.52MGBP 238.71M 3.212.48n/an/a39.47
Year 62.6% GBP 2.37BGBP 447.65MGBP 316.57MGBP 244.94M 3.292.55n/an/a40.50
Year 72.7% GBP 2.44BGBP 459.89MGBP 325.22MGBP 251.63M 3.382.62n/an/a41.61
Year 82.9% GBP 2.50BGBP 473.02MGBP 334.51MGBP 258.82M 3.482.69n/an/a42.80
Year 93.0% GBP 2.58BGBP 487.11MGBP 344.47MGBP 266.53M 3.582.77n/an/a44.07
Year 103.1% GBP 2.66BGBP 502.21MGBP 355.15MGBP 274.79M 3.692.86n/an/a45.44

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.