Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:29.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 45.17. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.3% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 0.5%, net -45.3%, free cash flow 14.0% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

The company is loss-making today, so the projection keeps the loss margin. It does not model a path to profit.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-3.1%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 59.22Model fair value (Normalised free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 23.25 to USD 126.70
31%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Dividend discount model agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; real estate: free cash flow after property spending is a poor guide; funds from operations fit better.

2.1%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 3.31BRevenue in year 10 (base)
-USD 1.50BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 464.49MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 55.74Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 45.17
6.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 407.64M USD 815.27M USD 1.22B USD 1.63B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -9.1% USD 324.76M -2.2%
Base -3.1% USD 464.49M 1.4%
Bull 2.9% USD 654.41M 4.9%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 2.89BUSD 13.55M-USD 1.31BUSD 405.69M -7.672.38n/an/a45.17
Year 1-3.1% USD 2.80BUSD 13.13M-USD 1.27BUSD 392.96M -7.432.30n/an/a44.43
Year 2-0.6% USD 2.79BUSD 13.05M-USD 1.26BUSD 390.78M -7.382.29n/an/a44.86
Year 32.1% USD 2.84BUSD 13.32M-USD 1.29BUSD 398.86M -7.542.34n/an/a46.48
Year 42.1% USD 2.90BUSD 13.60M-USD 1.31BUSD 407.23M -7.692.38n/an/a48.16
Year 52.1% USD 2.97BUSD 13.89M-USD 1.34BUSD 415.92M -7.862.44n/an/a49.91
Year 62.2% USD 3.03BUSD 14.19M-USD 1.37BUSD 424.93M -8.032.49n/an/a50.99
Year 72.2% USD 3.10BUSD 14.51M-USD 1.40BUSD 434.28M -8.212.54n/an/a52.11
Year 82.2% USD 3.17BUSD 14.83M-USD 1.43BUSD 443.98M -8.392.60n/an/a53.28
Year 92.3% USD 3.24BUSD 15.17M-USD 1.46BUSD 454.04M -8.582.66n/an/a54.48
Year 102.3% USD 3.31BUSD 15.52M-USD 1.50BUSD 464.49M -8.782.72n/an/a55.74

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.