Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 05 Nov 2026 16:05.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 70.55. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 5.6%, net 3.0%, free cash flow 0.4% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 1.5 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (5.1%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 84.70Model fair value (Normalised free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 61.92 to USD 127.03
20%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

5.5%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 109.24BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 3.23BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 449.63MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 2.71Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 96.28Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 70.55
1.3%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 1.05B USD 2.10B USD 3.15B USD 4.20B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 3.6% USD 397.70M 1.4%
Base 5.1% USD 449.63M 2.7%
Bull 6.6% USD 507.57M 3.9%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 84.06BUSD 4.74BUSD 2.48BUSD 346.00M 5.130.712.0849.2870.55
Year 15.1% USD 88.32BUSD 4.98BUSD 2.61BUSD 363.54M 5.390.752.1952.4874.87
Year 23.6% USD 91.47BUSD 5.15BUSD 2.70BUSD 376.47M 5.580.782.2755.8078.30
Year 32.1% USD 93.38BUSD 5.26BUSD 2.76BUSD 384.34M 5.700.792.3159.1880.73
Year 42.1% USD 95.37BUSD 5.37BUSD 2.82BUSD 392.54M 5.820.812.3662.6483.25
Year 52.2% USD 97.45BUSD 5.49BUSD 2.88BUSD 401.09M 5.950.832.4166.1785.88
Year 62.2% USD 99.61BUSD 5.61BUSD 2.94BUSD 410.00M 6.080.852.4769.7887.79
Year 72.3% USD 101.87BUSD 5.74BUSD 3.01BUSD 419.29M 6.220.872.5273.4889.78
Year 82.3% USD 104.22BUSD 5.87BUSD 3.08BUSD 428.98M 6.360.892.5877.2691.86
Year 92.4% USD 106.68BUSD 6.01BUSD 3.15BUSD 439.09M 6.510.912.6481.1294.02
Year 102.4% USD 109.24BUSD 6.16BUSD 3.23BUSD 449.63M 6.670.932.7185.0896.28

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.