Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Adobe Inc. (ADBE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; TTM through 31 Aug 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 15:22.

Starts from TTM through 31 Aug 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 240.53. Growth begins at 9.4% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.3% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 39.4%, net 28.0%, free cash flow 40.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 5.3 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (9.1%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 428.83Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 326.05 to USD 600.09
78%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

8.2%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 47.84BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 13.42BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 19.51BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 529.76Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 240.53
20.5%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 6.54B USD 13.08B USD 19.61B USD 26.15B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 31 Aug 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 3.8% USD 14.40B 3.1%
Base 9.1% USD 19.51B 6.3%
Bull 14.5% USD 26.15B 9.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 31 Aug 2026– USD 25.97BUSD 10.24BUSD 7.28BUSD 10.59B 18.4426.82n/an/a240.53
Year 19.1% USD 28.34BUSD 11.17BUSD 7.95BUSD 11.56B 20.1329.27n/an/a272.79
Year 28.9% USD 30.87BUSD 12.17BUSD 8.66BUSD 12.59B 21.9231.88n/an/a308.33
Year 38.0% USD 33.35BUSD 13.15BUSD 9.35BUSD 13.60B 23.6834.44n/an/a345.16
Year 47.3% USD 35.80BUSD 14.11BUSD 10.04BUSD 14.60B 25.4236.96n/an/a383.49
Year 56.7% USD 38.18BUSD 15.05BUSD 10.71BUSD 15.57B 27.1139.43n/an/a422.88
Year 66.0% USD 40.47BUSD 15.95BUSD 11.35BUSD 16.50B 28.7341.78n/an/a448.16
Year 75.3% USD 42.61BUSD 16.80BUSD 11.95BUSD 17.38B 30.2644.00n/an/a471.90
Year 84.6% USD 44.58BUSD 17.57BUSD 12.50BUSD 18.18B 31.6546.03n/an/a493.67
Year 93.9% USD 46.33BUSD 18.26BUSD 12.99BUSD 18.90B 32.9047.84n/an/a513.08
Year 103.3% USD 47.84BUSD 18.86BUSD 13.42BUSD 19.51B 33.9749.39n/an/a529.76

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.