Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Arch Capital Group (ACGL)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 05:59.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 108.49. Growth begins at 6.4% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 28.0%, net 23.2%, free cash flow 29.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-0.4%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 155.62Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range USD 129.11 to USD 202.52
43%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

15.8%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 26.37BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 6.12BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 7.87BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 0.18Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 469.99Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 108.49
21.2%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

USD 0.00 USD 65.47 USD 130.94 USD 196.41 USD 261.88 FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -6.4% USD 186.80 10.7%
Base -0.4% USD 220.06 12.6%
Bull 5.6% USD 261.88 14.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 18.88BUSD 5.29BUSD 4.38BUSD 5.63B 12.8216.490.1367.35108.49
Year 1-0.4% USD 18.80BUSD 5.27BUSD 4.36BUSD 5.61B 12.7716.420.1379.98137.24
Year 22.8% USD 19.32BUSD 5.41BUSD 4.48BUSD 5.76B 13.1216.880.1392.97169.29
Year 35.5% USD 20.39BUSD 5.71BUSD 4.73BUSD 6.08B 13.8517.810.14106.68205.45
Year 45.1% USD 21.43BUSD 6.01BUSD 4.97BUSD 6.39B 14.5618.720.15121.09245.91
Year 54.6% USD 22.43BUSD 6.28BUSD 5.20BUSD 6.69B 15.2319.590.16136.17290.82
Year 64.2% USD 23.37BUSD 6.55BUSD 5.42BUSD 6.97B 15.8720.410.16151.88324.37
Year 73.7% USD 24.24BUSD 6.79BUSD 5.62BUSD 7.23B 16.4721.180.17168.17359.18
Year 83.3% USD 25.04BUSD 7.02BUSD 5.81BUSD 7.47B 17.0121.880.17185.01395.14
Year 92.8% USD 25.76BUSD 7.22BUSD 5.97BUSD 7.68B 17.4922.500.18202.32432.12
Year 102.4% USD 26.37BUSD 7.39BUSD 6.12BUSD 7.87B 17.9123.040.18220.06469.99

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.