Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Credit Agricole S.A. (ACA.PA)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:12.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 15.88. Growth begins at 7.3% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 10.9%, net 6.3%, free cash flow 15.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (4.1%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 24.80Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range EUR 21.91 to EUR 29.92
56%Fair value vs today's price
MediumModel confidence
50%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only.

11.9%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 172.36BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 10.86BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 27.46BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 1.69Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 34.67Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 15.88
57.1%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 10.88 EUR 21.75 EUR 32.63 EUR 43.51 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -1.9% EUR 35.66 4.5%
Base 4.1% EUR 39.14 5.5%
Bull 10.1% EUR 43.51 6.6%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– EUR 112.32BEUR 12.27BEUR 7.07BEUR 17.90B 2.345.911.1022.9615.88
Year 14.1% EUR 116.91BEUR 12.77BEUR 7.36BEUR 18.63B 2.436.151.1424.2517.71
Year 25.4% EUR 123.23BEUR 13.46BEUR 7.76BEUR 19.63B 2.566.491.2125.6119.70
Year 36.2% EUR 130.85BEUR 14.30BEUR 8.24BEUR 20.85B 2.726.891.2827.0521.86
Year 45.6% EUR 138.23BEUR 15.10BEUR 8.71BEUR 22.02B 2.887.281.3528.5724.20
Year 55.1% EUR 145.28BEUR 15.87BEUR 9.15BEUR 23.15B 3.027.651.4230.1726.73
Year 64.6% EUR 151.90BEUR 16.60BEUR 9.57BEUR 24.20B 3.168.001.4931.8528.21
Year 74.0% EUR 158.01BEUR 17.26BEUR 9.95BEUR 25.18B 3.298.321.5533.5929.75
Year 83.5% EUR 163.51BEUR 17.86BEUR 10.30BEUR 26.05B 3.408.611.6035.3931.35
Year 92.9% EUR 168.32BEUR 18.39BEUR 10.60BEUR 26.82B 3.508.861.6537.2432.99
Year 102.4% EUR 172.36BEUR 18.83BEUR 10.86BEUR 27.46B 3.599.071.6939.1434.67

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.